Comparison of Ranks Prior to 2018 State Regional Round

This page shows the rankings from various sources of the state qualified teams prior to the regional round of the state tournaments.

WRPI is the official WIAA RPI used for seeding. Last year I also included my own calculated RPI. The WIAA RPI has added features for this year that substantially duplicates what TBRPI does, so TBRPI is not included this year. WL is just won-lost percentage. CapWL is captured wins and losses. LMpts is the teambrunnhilde.com points ranking: two time defending ranking champion. LMwl is similar to LMpts, except that the dependent variable for the linear model is 1 rather than the margin. So it just looks at wins and losses with the linear model rather than margin of the games. LMwl uses the same X matrix as LMpts. MP is the MaxPreps ranking taken from the MaxPreps site February 20. EV is the Evans Rankings calculated February 19. New this year is Comp, a composite of the above ratings: basically sum the rankings (normalized 1-16) for a team and then list those 1-16. Is there more wisdom from the crowd?

LMpts is based on margin. LMwl, RPI, WL, and CapWL are based on wins and losses. They are for the entire season. There is no "what have you done for me lately" component of the ranking. I don't have information on just what Evans Rankings uses, but it is a proprietary formula. The MaxPreps rating uses wins and losses with greater weighting for playoff games. So there is some form of recent performance adjustment. It is unknown if scores (other than win/loss) affect the rating.

Rankings (except for Evans and the composite) are those for the team within the entire set of teams for a classification. They are not 1 to 16 for the 16 state qualifiers. This results in some holes in the rankings. These may be due to upsets at district tournaments, but more often reflect the uneven spread of good teams between the districts. It may also reflect district bracketing that pitted good teams against eachother at an early state of the tournaments.

There are only two consensus champion picks: Garfield for 3A Boys and Colton for 1B Girls. Last year there were three consensus picks, and two were correct. Note that the Anacortes boys team, the WIAA #1 boys 2A team, failed to qualify for the state tournament, This means WIAA RPI is unable to claim selection of the champion even if their top rated team in the tournament emerges as the winner.

Last season WIAA RPI was the worst rating method. Even worse than WL. Improvements to WIAA RPI should put it about where TBRPI was last year (5th place), so a podium finish would be a big improvement. The results for this year will be shown at the bottom of this page following the tournament. It is felt that every other ranking should be able to do better than just Win-Loss.

Tables are sortable, just click on the column header to sort. The native sorting is by LMpts. Hey! It's my site. I get to decide.

Girls 4A Ranks

SchoolLMptsLMwlWRPIWLCapWLMPEVComp
Central Valley 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 1Champion
Eastlake 2 1 2 4 4 2 4 2
Moses Lake 3 4 4 1 3 4 3 3
Woodinville 4 2 5 5 6 3 5 5
Kentridge 5 8 3 3 2 5 2 4
Bellarmine Prep 612 6 7 7 8 7 6
University 711161717101413
Lewis and Clark 8 9142013 91210
Sunnyside 9101110121211 8
Lake Stevens 1113 7 5 5 7 6 7
Glacier Peak 1420151414171314
Camas 1619 815 916 911
Kentlake 1818101111151011
Beamer 2017 9 8 813 8 9
Rogers (Puyallup)2622181918191516
Union 2826191115201615

Girls 3A Ranks

SchoolLMptsLMwlWRPIWLCapWLMPEVComp
Kamiakin 1 1 4 2 2 1 3 2
Prairie 2 6 8 3 3 3 6 3
Lincoln 3 3 1 1 1 2 1 1
Bethel 41210 3 8 9 8 7
Garfield 5 5 313 7 5 4 4
Mount Spokane 610212821151413
Stanwood 711121515101111
West Seattle 8 2 710 9 4 7 6
Bellevue 1015111111141010
Gig Harbor 11 9 214 512 2 8Champion
Seattle Prep 12 4 5 9 4 6 5 5
Cleveland 16 8141213 7 9 9
Shorecrest 1921191617181314
Peninsula 221613 612111212
Lynnwood 2526282126261515
Kelso 2932312127271616

Girls 2A Ranks

SchoolLMptsLMwlWRPIWLCapWLMPEVComp
W.F. West 1 4 2 2 2 2 2 2Champion
East Valley (Spokane) 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Archbishop Murphy 3 8 5 2 3 5 3 3
Wapato 5 2 6 4 5 4 6 4
Burlington-Edison 6 7 3 9 6 3 4 5
Lynden 710 716 9 6 8 8
East Valley (Yakima) 8 6141314 81412
Black Hills 9 9 9 9 8 7 9 7
Prosser 10 513 912101310
Washougal 111111 811121211
White River 1416 8 5 713 7 9
Liberty (Issaquah) 1623262725191615
Port Angeles 2214 4 6 4 9 5 6
North Kitsap 2720121213151114
Renton 282816 710211013
Fife 3134251919311516

Girls 1A Ranks

SchoolLMptsLMwlWRPIWLCapWLMPEVComp
Cashmere 1 4 2 5 2 3 2 2
Lynden Christian 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Champion
Zillah 3 2 4 1 4 2 4 3
La Salle 4 5 3 9 6 5 3 5
Medical Lake 5 3 5 1 3 4 5 4
La Center 6 7 6 4 5 6 6 6
Meridian 7 9 91311 8 9 8
Cle Elum-Roslyn 8 8131413 71210
Lakeside (Nine Mile Falls) 9 6 71410 9 8 7
Nooksack Valley 1011101612101011
Seattle Christian 131511 6 813 7 9
Freeman 1412202121141513
Bellevue Christian 1623162118191415
Montesano 1918121714161112
Seattle Academy 3640211215301314
Port Townsend 4448463339461616

Girls 2B Ranks

SchoolLMptsLMwlWRPIWLCapWLMPEVComp
Colfax 1 1 5 6 5 2 6 3Champion
Ilwaco 2 4 1 1 1 1 1 1
Davenport 3 2 2 6 3 3 4 2
St. George's 4 3 711 7 7 7 6
Napavine 7 9 4 2 2 4 2 4
Wahkiakum 811 3 5 4 5 3 5
White Swan 9 5 6 9 8 6 8 7
Mabton 10 610 811 8 9 9
Tri-Cities Prep1110111012 91111
Brewster 121213 410131210
Life Christian 1413 912 9141012
La Conner 1514 8 3 611 5 8
Mossyrock 1615151313151313
Lake Roosevelt 1720212625231614
Orcas Island 3634242120261415
Friday Harbor 3733203026301516

Girls 1B Ranks

SchoolLMptsLMwlWRPIWLCapWLMPEVComp
Colton 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Champion
Sunnyside Christian 2 3 4 2 4 4 4 2
Pomeroy 3 2 2 9 5 2 3 3
Almira Coulee Hartline 4 4 7 2 3 3 6 4
Selkirk 7 5 6 8 8 5 9 6
Entiat 1215 9 5 9 9 8 7
Yakama Tribal 1416202520181413
Neah Bay 1512 3 2 2 7 2 4
Mount Vernon Christian 1714 511 711 5 7
Mount Rainier Lutheran 2017 8 6 610 7 9
Clallam Bay 2323161814191312
Columbia Adventist 261917 610131110
Taholah 2725131212201011
Rainier Christian 2927152117251214
Northwest Yeshiva 3028212019231515
Riverside Christian 4129292627301616

Boys 4A Ranks

SchoolLMptsLMwlWRPIWLCapWLMPEVComp
Richland 1 2 4 3 4 2 3 2
Federal Way 2 7 6 2 2 3 5 3
Gonzaga Prep 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Champion
Union 5 5 3 9 5 5 4 5
Lewis and Clark 6 9101714 91210
Skyview 7 4 2 6 3 4 2 4
Enumclaw 812 710 7 8 7 7
Davis 9 3 5 4 6 6 6 6
Curtis 1016151513151413
Bothell 11 813 4 811 8 8
Glacier Peak 121111 710121110
Kentwood 1314121412141012
Sunnyside 1410 9 71110 9 9
Kamiak 1920171918171315
Skyline 2717211215201514
Bellarmine Prep 2828252626311616

Boys 3A Ranks

SchoolLMptsLMwlWRPIWLCapWLMPEVComp
Garfield 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Champion
Rainier Beach 2 3 712 6 6 9 6
O'Dea 3 2 2 3 3 2 2 2
Eastside Catholic 4 4 6 7 7 3 6 4
Seattle Prep 5 5132117101411
Lincoln 6 7 3 2 2 4 3 3
Wilson 817 8 8101310 9
Timberline 1211 5 9 5 9 5 7
Prairie 1313 91311 7 7 8
Kelso 15 9 4 5 4 5 4 5
Stanwood 1619111814171214
North Thurston 171812 4 9161111
Mount Spokane 1816211518151515
Marysville-Pilchuck 191510 6 812 8 9
Kamiakin 2010141113111313
Arlington 2325231921231616

Boys 2A Ranks

SchoolLMptsLMwlWRPIWLCapWLMPEVComp
Selah 110 3 1 1 8 1 2
Mountlake Terrace 2 1 6 2 2 1 2 1
Foss 4 7 4 7 5 5 4 3
Lynden 5 6 213 6 6 3 4Champion
Liberty (Issaquah) 6 516 7131012 9
Columbia River 7 3 8 7 8 4 6 6
W.F. West 8 8 9 4 4 7 5 7
Pullman 9 4 7 3 7 2 7 5
North Kitsap 101210 6 913 810
Mark Morris 11 9 51310 9 9 8
Fife 1211111011121011
Renton 1515121112171112
Burlington-Edison 1819213023201515
West Valley (Spokane)2013151817111313
Cheney 2122253932191616
Clover Park 2521191719181414

Boys 1A Ranks

SchoolLMptsLMwlWRPIWLCapWLMPEVComp
Lynden Christian 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 1Champion
Freeman 2 2 2 1 2 1 2 2
Zillah 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Newport (Newport) 4 5 810 8 4 7 5
Montesano 52023 614141311
La Center 610131311 711 8
Royal 7 6 4 5 4 5 4 4
Mount Baker 811182724151413
King's 1117272125191615
Northwest 13 8 6 4 5 8 6 6
Lakeside (Nine Mile Falls) 14 9101915 61010
Bellevue Christian 15 4 5 7 610 5 7
Naches Valley 1627191817161214
Cascade Christian (Puyallup) 19 7 7161311 9 9
King's Way Christian 2024262226181516
Wahluke 231912121012 812

Boys 2B Ranks

SchoolLMptsLMwlWRPIWLCapWLMPEVComp
Kittitas-Thorp 1 3 1 2 2 2 1 2Champion
Adna 2 2 4 3 4 3 4 3
St. George's 3 1 2 1 1 1 2 1
Morton-White Pass 4 6 5 9 6 7 6 6
Toutle Lake 5 7 71010 6 7 7
Liberty (Spangle) 6 5 6 4 5 4 5 5
Toledo 8 4 3 7 4 5 3 4
Brewster 912 8 4 710 8 8
Life Christian 10 9 9 7 911 9 9
Colfax 1110121111 81111
Tri-Cities Prep 141110 6 8 91010
Friday Harbor 2319201519191312
Oroville 2523171716231212
Orcas Island 3131342228341515
White Swan 3628303333241615
Crosspoint 3837211417271414

Boys 1B Ranks

SchoolLMptsLMwlWRPIWLCapWLMPEVComp
Sunnyside Christian 1 1 1 2 3 1 1 1Champion
Muckleshoot 2 5 2 3 1 2 2 2
Yakama Tribal 3 2 4 8 4 3 4 4
Odessa 4 4 6 5 6 6 7 6
Cedar Park Christian (Mountlake Terrace) 5 7 3 1 2 5 3 3
Almira Coulee Hartline 6 6 9 9 9 7 9 8
Pomeroy 8 3 5 4 5 4 5 5
Tacoma Baptist 912 7 7 7 8 6 7
Naselle 1011111314111110
Garfield-Palouse 12 8131212 91311
Mount Rainier Lutheran 1317152015161213
Tulalip Heritage 1415121010141012
Taholah 181310 6 813 8 9
Pateros 2336242123251514
Pope John Paul II 2625192824191414
Riverside Christian 3238322528311616

Final Results

RankerRegionalsWednesdayThursdayFridaySaturdayTotal# Champs
LM-pts 81-15 34-14 37-11 32-16 22-14 206-70 74.6%8
MP 73-23 33-15 38-10 32-16 19-17 195-81 70.7%6
LM-wl 69-27 32-16 40- 8 34-14 20-16 195-81 70.7%6
Comp 70-24-2 31-17 35-13 32-15-1 22-14190-83-3 69.6%7
WRPI 67-29 30-18 34-14 33-15 22-14 186-90 67.4%8
EV 68-28 27-21 35-13 32-16 23-13 185-91 67.0%8
CapWL 65-31 28-19-1 34-13-1 33-15 23-13183-91-2 66.8%6
WL 67-28-1 26-21-1 30-17-1 29-17-2 22-12-2174-95-7 64.7%5
Unan. 51- 6 20-11 25- 3 22- 5 10- 5 128-30 81.0%

Overall ranking accuracy was better than last year. Accuracy on unanimous games was slightly higher, but there were more unanimous games, raising accuracy in general. Consolation games on Friday and Saturday were brutal. Total accuracy for these was only 55.5%.

The most accurately ranked tournament was Girls 1B (84%). Composite rating got all games picked correctly (except for one that the ranking was tied). At the other were end Girls 3A (59%) and Boys 4A (61%). Boys 4A also had the most unanimous games (18 of 23) but rankers were only 11-7 in those games.

On solo picks (where one ranker chose a team, the other rankers choosing the other team), Evans was 1-0, Captured WL was 1-0, LM-pts was 8-7, WL was 4-5, LM-wl was 4-7, WIAA RPI was 2-4. MaxPreps had no solo picks.

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